NFL Week 10 Sharp Football Betting And Analysis With Picks And Props

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Last week NFL home underdogs bounced back big going 5-0 SU/ATS on Sunday and 6-1 ATS for the week. Home underdogs are now 17-19 against the spread (ATS) this season but just 11-24-1 straight up (SU) after the Raiders kicked off Week 10 Thursday with a home win over the Chargers 26-24 as a 1.5-point underdog.

Week 10 has four more home underdogs on Sunday, but bettors are still riding the favorites. Late in the week, William Hill sportsbooks showed the Chiefs (-6) taking more than 92% of the bets and 83% of the money as a road favorite at Tennessee. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) announced himself fit to return and will start Sunday at Tennessee.

"I'm in a good spot,'' Mahomes said after the Chiefs concluded their practice week on Friday. "I'm ready to get out there.''

So are the AFC West-leading Chiefs (6-3) after a last second field goal to beat the Vikings as a home underdog last week as Mahomes watched from the sidelines.

The Jets (1-7) are the home team at MetLife Stadium Sunday against the Giants (2-7), who also play their home games at MetLife. The Giants have taking more money with 85% of the spread bets through Thursday. The Giants are up to a 3-point ‘road’ favorite on Saturday at most Las Vegas sportsbooks including William Hill.

The AFC North-leading Ravens (-10.5) are next as another road favorite taking 78% of the spread bets at Cincinnati (0-8) against the winless Bengals who enter off a bye week. Baltimore (6-2) was a home underdog winner last week handing defending Super Bowl champion New England its first loss of the season in a 37-20 Ravens romp.

The Steelers (4-4) are the fourth home underdog Sunday, up to +4 as the Rams are taking 77% of the spread bets and more than 80% of the money in their match-up at Pittsburgh. The Rams (5-3) enter off their bye week looking to stay in the NFC West and wild card chase with first place San Francisco (8-0) tackling second-place Seattle (7-2) in a key game Monday night. On Friday, FanDuel Sportsbook reported that betting action was brisk with 80% of bets and 75% money on the Seahawks (+6.5).

William Hill updates the point spread odds and betting data and trends on Sunday morning with the late week information from Thursday provided below.

Bettors searching for more analytics on each game, or a systematic analysis of data or statistics, may want to visit SharpFootballAnalysis.com. Free Week 10 access of premium NFL content with recommended bets and analysis provided by Warren Sharp, who works as a consultant for NFL teams and pro betting groups. Sharp Football Analysis provides cutting edge quantitative analytics with predictive NFL analysis & visualized data. Warren Sharp’s team of analysts also includes fantasy football analysis, props and other betting recommendations.

There are also over/under recommendations this week and halftime plays like the Steelers/Rams first half ‘under’ 21.5 points. Also, first half and game ‘over’ the total between the Packers and Panthers at Lambeau Field with analysis like this:

  • Carolina Panthers Over (1.5 units) *SPLIT* Take first half Over 23.5 -105 (0.75 units) and Over 46.5 -116 (0.75 units) full game

Anytime a team with a young quarterback goes on the road, it’s important to bring a strong supporting run game. The Panthers have faced the NFL’s #1 toughest schedule of run defenses, and that includes playing five games of 8 games against top-5 ranked run defenses.

The Packers run defense ranks 26th in the NFL despite playing an easier-than-average schedule of run offenses.

The Panthers run offense ranks #5 in the NFL despite playing the #1 toughest schedule of rushing defenses. They now get to face the easiest run defense of the season, the #26 ranked Packers.

That’s exactly the edge you need in scoring points when you’re bringing the young Kyle Allen to cold Lambeau.

The Packers run offense has faced just four above average run offenses this season. The Panthers will be the 2nd best run offense they will face. In those prior four games, because the opposing teams could score and run, there was an average of 56 ppg, including 62 ppg over the last three games.

On the ground in those four games, the Packers run defense allowed:

• 7.7 YPC to Dalvin Cook

• 6.5 YPC to Miles Sanders

• 5.9 YPC to Josh Jacobs

• 5.8 YPC to Jordan Howard

• 5.2 YPC to Ezekiel Elliott

There is even more analysis and explanation with charts and additional computations and stats to support the recommendations.

In a fluid betting market, the odds and lines move and are influenced by sharp analysts and bettors. That’s the case with these plays as the Packers and Panthers game total is up to 47.5 and even 48 at many leading online sportsbooks like BetOnline.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) brings you data-driven NFL rankings, stats, and player grades for every team and player.

Pro Football Focus premium content includes other analysis and NFL player props to consider in Week 10.

  • Ted Ginn (Saints), Receiving Yards 49.5 (-118) — UNDER ★★★★★

We only have one five-star bet on the board this week, but it’s a good one. Ginn is projected at 39.9 receiving yards, which is nearly a 20% difference from this line. Play the Under.

Week 10 will provide more NFL upsets and even blowouts with plenty of entertaining play. For most bettors, there is no need to pay for tout services when there is plenty of free quality analysis available by proven industry experts who provide added stats, insight and information you can bet on.

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Last week NFL home underdogs bounced back big going 5-0 SU/ATS on Sunday and 6-1 ATS for the week. Home underdogs are now 17-19 against the spread (ATS) this season but just 11-24-1 straight up (SU) after the Raiders kicked off Week 10 Thursday with a home win over the Chargers 26-24 as a 1.5-point underdog.

Week 10 has four more home underdogs on Sunday, but bettors are still riding the favorites. Late in the week, William Hill sportsbooks showed the Chiefs (-6) taking more than 92% of the bets and 83% of the money as a road favorite at Tennessee. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) announced himself fit to return and will start Sunday at Tennessee.

"I'm in a good spot,'' Mahomes said after the Chiefs concluded their practice week on Friday. "I'm ready to get out there.''

So are the AFC West-leading Chiefs (6-3) after a last second field goal to beat the Vikings as a home underdog last week as Mahomes watched from the sidelines.

The Jets (1-7) are the home team at MetLife Stadium Sunday against the Giants (2-7), who also play their home games at MetLife. The Giants have taking more money with 85% of the spread bets through Thursday. The Giants are up to a 3-point ‘road’ favorite on Saturday at most Las Vegas sportsbooks including William Hill.

The AFC North-leading Ravens (-10.5) are next as another road favorite taking 78% of the spread bets at Cincinnati (0-8) against the winless Bengals who enter off a bye week. Baltimore (6-2) was a home underdog winner last week handing defending Super Bowl champion New England its first loss of the season in a 37-20 Ravens romp.

The Steelers (4-4) are the fourth home underdog Sunday, up to +4 as the Rams are taking 77% of the spread bets and more than 80% of the money in their match-up at Pittsburgh. The Rams (5-3) enter off their bye week looking to stay in the NFC West and wild card chase with first place San Francisco (8-0) tackling second-place Seattle (7-2) in a key game Monday night. On Friday, FanDuel Sportsbook reported that betting action was brisk with 80% of bets and 75% money on the Seahawks (+6.5).

William Hill updates the point spread odds and betting data and trends on Sunday morning with the late week information from Thursday provided below.

Bettors searching for more analytics on each game, or a systematic analysis of data or statistics, may want to visit SharpFootballAnalysis.com. Free Week 10 access of premium NFL content with recommended bets and analysis provided by Warren Sharp, who works as a consultant for NFL teams and pro betting groups. Sharp Football Analysis provides cutting edge quantitative analytics with predictive NFL analysis & visualized data. Warren Sharp’s team of analysts also includes fantasy football analysis, props and other betting recommendations.

There are also over/under recommendations this week and halftime plays like the Steelers/Rams first half ‘under’ 21.5 points. Also, first half and game ‘over’ the total between the Packers and Panthers at Lambeau Field with analysis like this:

  • Carolina Panthers Over (1.5 units) *SPLIT* Take first half Over 23.5 -105 (0.75 units) and Over 46.5 -116 (0.75 units) full game

Anytime a team with a young quarterback goes on the road, it’s important to bring a strong supporting run game. The Panthers have faced the NFL’s #1 toughest schedule of run defenses, and that includes playing five games of 8 games against top-5 ranked run defenses.

The Packers run defense ranks 26th in the NFL despite playing an easier-than-average schedule of run offenses.

The Panthers run offense ranks #5 in the NFL despite playing the #1 toughest schedule of rushing defenses. They now get to face the easiest run defense of the season, the #26 ranked Packers.

That’s exactly the edge you need in scoring points when you’re bringing the young Kyle Allen to cold Lambeau.

The Packers run offense has faced just four above average run offenses this season. The Panthers will be the 2nd best run offense they will face. In those prior four games, because the opposing teams could score and run, there was an average of 56 ppg, including 62 ppg over the last three games.

On the ground in those four games, the Packers run defense allowed:

• 7.7 YPC to Dalvin Cook

• 6.5 YPC to Miles Sanders

• 5.9 YPC to Josh Jacobs

• 5.8 YPC to Jordan Howard

• 5.2 YPC to Ezekiel Elliott

There is even more analysis and explanation with charts and additional computations and stats to support the recommendations.

In a fluid betting market, the odds and lines move and are influenced by sharp analysts and bettors. That’s the case with these plays as the Packers and Panthers game total is up to 47.5 and even 48 at many leading online sportsbooks like BetOnline.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) brings you data-driven NFL rankings, stats, and player grades for every team and player.

Pro Football Focus premium content includes other analysis and NFL player props to consider in Week 10.

  • Ted Ginn (Saints), Receiving Yards 49.5 (-118) — UNDER ★★★★★

We only have one five-star bet on the board this week, but it’s a good one. Ginn is projected at 39.9 receiving yards, which is nearly a 20% difference from this line. Play the Under.

Week 10 will provide more NFL upsets and even blowouts with plenty of entertaining play. For most bettors, there is no need to pay for tout services when there is plenty of free quality analysis available by proven industry experts who provide added stats, insight and information you can bet on.

Follow me on Twitter. Check out my website.

I’m a professional sports analyst, better known as "FairwayJay." I took my bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and left a real estate career to pursue my

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